COVIWORLD

A Bit of Background

COVIWORLD is a free online visualization tool to help understand the spread of infectious diseases like COVID-19. It is designed to help to create dynamic and easy-to-understand maps for the general public to capture COVID-19 trends. Much like a weather map, the hope is that by being able to glimpse the COVID-19 spread in your region, this will help make basic decisions that will affect you, your family and the community at large. COVIWORLD is focused currently on the surge in the United States but will extend to additional countries.

Please view these results as a guide for use at your discretion. While the projections in this software may not always be correct, the maps will capture the important COVID-19 trends in your area. Ultimately you will be able to compare these forecasts with what is actually seen in reality and come to your own conclusions as to the usefulness of this tool.

Click here to get more information on the what, how and why of COVIWORLD. There will be much more to follow but for the moment, there is an urgent need to get the US maps out as soon as possible. Please bear with me.

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How COVIWORLD works

There are two color maps displayed for each US state - one that shows the daily case count per 100k of the state's population. The second shows the daily death count per 100k. A unique model and software has been developed that uses publicly available COVID current case and death data to generate predictions for how these will change over a 30-day time period for all US States. These are mapped on a color scheme in which white represents a COVID-free state and red corresponds to levels that match those seen during the Winter 2020-21 surge in the USA. The change in redness of your state over the time lapse period reflects how the model expects the COVID numbers to change. The idea is to give you a quick visual guide to understanding what the COVID situation is like in your state.

For example, if your state COVID-19 death forecast map transitions to red over the 30-day window, then deaths are going up in that period. If the red is as bright as the top of the scale, then this would represent a situation similar to disastrous Winter surge in the US and extra caution is warranted, particularly so if you are not vaccinated. So many factors influence the nature of the modeling and for that reason the intention is to update these maps every week for the foreseeable future.

Acknowledgements

I am indebted to the contributing staff at the New York Times who have chronicled the Covid-19 case and death rates across every county in the United States since the start of the pandemic. This is utilized as input for the modeling software and without which this type of endeavor is not possible.

1. https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data